Aftershocks Are Not Afterthoughts

Aftershocks, those who live through major earthquakes often say, are worse than the main shock in their own way. At least the main shock took them by surprise and was over fairly soon, in less than a minute usually. But with aftershocks, people are stressed already, dealing with disrupted lives and cities. They expect aftershocks at any minute, day or night. When a building is damaged by the main shock, aftershocks can take it down—maybe when youre inside cleaning it up. No wonder Susan Hough, the government seismologist who gets in the news whenever temblors do, calls aftershocks ghosts of earthquakes past. The Duration of Aftershocks I can show you some aftershocks right now: just look at the map of recent earthquakes for the San Simeon area of California. In any given week, there are aftershocks there from the 2003 San Simeon earthquake. And east of Barstow  you can still see a trickle of aftershocks from the October 1999 Hector Mine earthquake. Indeed, some scientists argue that aftershocks may last for centuries in places, like continental interiors, where plate motions that build up stresses in the crust are very slow. This makes intuitive sense, but careful studies using long historical catalogs will need to be done. The Trouble with Aftershocks Two things about aftershocks make them troublesome. First, they arent restricted to the spot where the main shock occurred, but can strike tens of kilometers away—and, say, if a magnitude 7 quake was centered out beyond the suburbs but one of its magnitude 5 aftershocks happened right underneath City Hall, the littler one might be the worse of the two. This was the case with the Christchurch, New Zealand earthquake of September 2010 and its large aftershock five months later. Second, aftershocks dont necessarily get smaller as time passes. They get fewer, but sizable ones can happen long after most of the little ones have ended. In Southern California, this phenomenon aroused so much concern after the Northridge quake of 17 January 1994 that Hough wrote an op-ed piece for the Los Angeles Times on the subject three full years later. Scientific Uses of Aftershocks Aftershocks are scientifically interesting because they are good ways to map the underground fault zone that ruptured in the main shock. (Heres how they look for the cases of Northridge.) In the case of the 28 September 2004 Parkfield quake, you can see that the first hour of aftershocks alone outlines the ruptured zone quite well. Aftershocks are also interesting because theyre fairly well behaved—meaning that they have a detectable pattern, unlike all other quakes. The definition that scientists use for an aftershock is any seismic event occurring within one rupture-zone length of a main shock and within the time it takes for seismicity to fall off to what it was before the main shock. This body of quakes fits three mathematical rules, more or less. The first is the Gutenberg-Richter relation, which says that as you go down one magnitude unit in size, aftershocks increase in number by about ten times. The second is called Baths law, which says that the largest aftershock is, on average, 1.2 magnitude units smaller than the main shock. And finally, Omoris law states that aftershock frequency decreases by roughly the reciprocal of time after the main shock. These numbers differ a bit in different active regions depending on their geology, but theyre close enough for government work as the saying goes. So seismologists can advise the authorities immediately after a large earthquake that a certain area can expect X probabilities of aftershocks of Y sizes for Z period of time. The U.S. Geological Surveys STEP project produces a daily map of California with the current risk of strong aftershocks for the next 24 hours. Thats as good a forecast as we can make, and probably the best possible given that earthquakes are inherently unpredictable. Aftershocks in the Quiet Zones Still to be determined is how much Omoris law varies beyond active tectonic settings. Large earthquakes are rare away from plate boundary zones, but a 2000 paper in Seismological Research Letters by John Ebel showed that aftershocks of these intra-plate earthquakes could last for several centuries. One of those was the 1663 Charlevoix, Quebec, earthquake; another was the 1356 earthquake in Basel, Switzerland. In the American Midwest, those would be prehistoric events. In 2009 Seth Stein and Mian Liu argued in Nature that these quiet settings seem to slow everything down, with stress increasing slowly and aftershock sequences lasting longer. They also noted that where the historical record is short, such as in the United States, it may be a mistake to judge the degree of earthquake hazard from events that are actually aftershocks rather than background seismicity. This knowledge may not help you cope with your nerves if you live in an aftershock zone. But it does give you some guidelines as to how bad things will be. And more concretely, it can help engineers judge how probable it is that your new building will be hit by significant aftershocks over the next few years and plan accordingly. PS: Susan Hough and her colleague Lucy Jones wrote an article on this subject for Eos, the house journal for the American Geophysical Union, in November 1997. The U.S. Geological Survey scientists closed by saying that we would like to propose that the phrase just an aftershock be hereafter banned from the English language. Tell your neighbors.

Fukuyama s The End Of History - 882 Words

In Fukuyama s â€Å"The End of History?† published in 1989, he posits that with the end of the Cold War, humanity is reaching a point where Western liberal democracy and economic structure is the highest form of ideological development. Other ideologies (communism, fascism, etc.) are vestigial forms of thinking destined to fail and disappear in an inevitable progression towards a liberal system. In â€Å"The Clash of Civilizations?† published in 1993, Huntington writes that the world is divided into civilizations, based on culture (not ideology or economic factors), and that the conflicts of the future (and some in the present) will be based on divisions along those lines. These include, according to Huntington, â€Å"Western, Confucian, Japanese, Islamic, Hindu, Slavic-Orthodox, Latin American and possibly African...† (Huntington 1993, 25). While these theories are seemingly compatible at first glance – Fukuyama s Western liberalism be the victor in Huntington s war of civilizations – there is a major difference, and some important reasons for this difference, which we can find in the authors pasts. I believe that the major difference is Fukuyama s faith in a victory for Western liberalism. While Huntington is satisfied with showing that other civilizations/cultures will clash with the West s, Fukuyama is confident that the West is already on its way to victory. We can see sources of this thinking throughout his early life. Though ethnically Japanese, Fukuyama grew up integratedShow MoreRelatedFrancis Fukuyama s The End Of History985 Words   |  4 PagesIdeology, Life of Conflict: Francis Fukuyama and Samuel Huntington In Francis Fukuyama s â€Å"The End of History?† published in 1989, he posits that with the end of the Cold War, humanity is reaching a point where Western liberal democracy and economic structure is the highest form of ideological development. Other ideologies (communism, fascism, etc.) are vestigial forms of thinking destined to fail and disappear in an inevitable progression towards a liberal system (Fukuyama 1989). In â€Å"The Clash of CivilizationsRead MoreThe Rise and Fall of Ideologies in Fukuyama ´s The End of History2534 Words   |  11 Pagesessay, The End of History, Fukuyama discusses the rise and fall of various ideologies throughout history, and the prevalence of western liberal democracy as the final form of human government. 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Management of Diversity Free Essays

MANAGEMENT OF DIVERSITY WITHIN AN ORGANIZATION Written and presented by: Tyson Johnson Charles Bushell Kori Greaves Introduction When most people envision diversity, the first things which come to mind are age, sexual orientation, race and gender. In Workforce America! Managing Employee Diversity as a Vital Resource, diversity is defined as: â€Å"otherness or those human qualities that are different from our own and outside the groups to which we belong, yet present in other individuals and groups. â€Å"The dimensions of diversity are further expanded but not limited to: age, ethnicity, gender, race, physical abilities/qualities, sexual orientation, education, geographical location, income, marital status, religion, work experience, military involvement. We will write a custom essay sample on Management of Diversity or any similar topic only for you Order Now † (Loden and Rosener 1991; 18-19) Principles and Objectives To address diversity issues directly one must question: What policies, practices or current strategies within our organizational culture have differential impact on different groups? What organizational changes should be made to meet the requirements of a modern diverse workforce and maximize the potential of all workers? The Key Principles and objectives of The Organizational Diversity Plan are as follows: * Promote awareness of workplace diversity within the organization (acceptance) * Develop and maintain a highly skilled and efficient workforce where the value and motivation of employees is present across the board * Develop a supportive environment where staff have a balance between work and their personal life * Provide a prejudice and harassment free working environment * Include diversity management principles in recruitment processes The Solution Acceptance of diversity: First and foremost, management must acknowledge that their working environment encompasses a wide variety of people. It is often difficult to see what part diversity plays in a specific area of management and how it relates to the development and success of the organization. A manager must understand that in the modern world, where migration due to education and opportunities is prevalent, diversity is an inevitable issue and must be handled in such a way that the organization can benefit and succeed. Development and maintenance of workforce: To develop an efficient team, a leader must be established within each team, group or department. The most effective team leaders build their relationships with workers through trust and loyalty as opposed to fear and power. A manager should consider the suggestions and ideas of all his employees. No idea should be considered as unworthy or idiotic. Employees should be made to feel like they belong and are part of the bigger picture. One should always seek chances to mediate and solve minor disputes before they get out of hand. This leads to greater harmony and a step towards achieving company goals. In mediating, directives should be clear and concise and must take into consideration everyone’s differences and views. The contribution of each team member should never be undervalued and the manager must remind his employees about the importance of his/her job to the success and development of the business. Employees should work on creating solutions on their own. This develops communication and builds a stronger bond. As a supervisor your initial priority in problem solving is stimulating debate. Employees are often afraid to disagree with one another and this may result in poor decisions made. Debate inspires creativity which further leads to a workforce which thrives on cohesion and efficiency. Develop a Supportive Environment: The working environment is always an important variable in having a productive staff. Diversity introduces many struggles including trying to maintain a balanced environment for employees. One must accept the fact that there is life outside of the workplace regardless of timelines and working hours. Families must be attended to, social activity to be maintained. It is up to management to forge a bridge between work and personal life in such a way that productivity is still maintained at a high level but with minimal stress. * The introduction of after work care for children of staff, will allow staff to continue to work outside of normal working hours but still be able to take care of their children. * Staff parties or outings are always a good idea to address the need for social interaction. This also gives workers a chance to understand different cultures and personalities of their colleagues. * Religious beliefs, and sexual orientations must be accepted and care taken to respect them. Prejudice and harassment free organization: The main problem realized with diversity is discrimination which comes in many forms. There should be a zero-tolerance policy with relation to prejudice or harassment of any kind. Regardless of race or culture or gender, each employee was hired for a particular set of skills or envisioned potential they could offer to the organization and they should be allowed to display and hone them. Discrimination breeds separation and breakdowns in communication which impacts very negatively on the productivity and advancement of any business. Where discrimination is identified as an issue, all efforts should be made to address the situation(s) as quickly as possible. Discipline must be swift and – in extreme cases – harsh in order to set the standard for further issues. Diversity management principles in recruitment: During recruitment and interviewing processes, management must bear in mind that everyone must have the same access to opportunities and ensure that a nondiscriminatory standard is used for the selection process. This can be aided by: Forming diverse selection committees to ensure bias free selection * Salary and incentives should be offered equally regardless of ethnic origin or sexual orientation * Make sure there is equal opportunity for both men and women Conclusion Management of diversity is one of the key goals of the modern organization. It is extremely important to comprehend how the dynamics of diversity affect performance, productivity, motivation and success within the business and le arn how to merge them. Some human resources policies and structures have created or presented barriers in an effort to mask the problem but this is far from the solution. These blockades must be removed to allow free interaction and communication between staff and staff and employer. Diversity is not a problem, but actually an aid in the development and advancement of an organization. As with any introduced policy, there is a need for continuous monitoring and evaluating. The modern business environment and attitudes contained are constantly being changed and molded. Bibliography Loden and Rosener – 1991 Oxford University Human Resources Department Equality, Diversity and Inclusion: An International Journal – Ratsamy Phomphakdy, Brian H. Kleiner How to cite Management of Diversity, Papers